Logbook

Dated entries on prediction markets and on what Faro is learning — kept the way a lighthouse keeper keeps a log. Each entry is a snapshot of what we believed when we wrote it.

• 1 November 2026 · Logbook · 2 of 3Why Faro, and what a week of order books showedWhat Faro is, how it runs on one modest server, and what happened when we replayed every order-book change on Polymarket for a full week: arbitrage that is real and persistent, but worth about $20 a day.
• 31 October 2026 · Logbook · 1 of 3Prediction markets in 2026: what they are, how they got here, and why most of the world says noA plain-language tour of prediction markets — how a 0-to-$1 contract turns into a probability, how Kalshi and Polymarket grew from curiosities into $50-billion-a-month venues, and why regulators from Rome to Ohio are pushing back.