Demo · sample data —Back to Home

Trade

Tue 27 Oct · 15:19 CET · paper account
Polymarket · 43kKalshi · 141k
SAMPLE DATA
P&L · 30d+$184paper account · $5,000 notional
Trades · 30d75 resolved in our favour
Realised edge+4.1¢per contract, after fees
Max drawdown−$22Oct 9 → Oct 11
Idle71%of market hours · normal
Fees · 30d$38per-market schedule

Equity · 30 days · after fees

EquityTrade
10,11010,05510,000Sep 28Oct 4Oct 12Oct 18Oct 27

What we traded · 2 open · 5 closed this month

EnteredVenuePositionEntryNowEdge pred.RealisedP&LState
Oct 27 · 11:42KX
Fed funds 3.50–3.75% at year-end · YES · 120
forecast mismatch · KXFED ladder
27¢29¢+6.0¢+2.0¢+$2Open
Oct 24 · 16:05PM
Georgia Senate 2026 · 3-leg basket · 200
coherence · negRisk · fees 3.0¢
97.6¢98.1¢+2.4¢+0.5¢+$1Open
Oct 19 · 09:30KX
September CPI print · ladder, 3 ranges · 200
coherence · resolved Oct 24
98.0¢100¢+2.0¢+2.0¢+$40Closed
Oct 12 · 14:10PM
UK by-election winner · 3-leg basket · 200
coherence · zero_fees · resolved Oct 17
96.9¢100¢+3.1¢+3.1¢+$62Closed

Questions in scope · 1,284 watched · sorted by edge

CandidateWatchStay out
VenueQuestionYesModelEdgeConfidence24 hStatus
KX
Will the Fed cut rates at the December FOMC?
forecast mismatch · superforecaster median 0.72
62¢0.71+9.0¢
Candidate
KX
Will the Supreme Court rule on the tariffs case before Feb 1?
forecast mismatch · Manifold 0.61 · ForecastBench 0.68
58¢0.66+8.0¢
Candidate
PM
Roland-Garros 2027 men's champion — 8 outcomes
negRisk · outcomes sum 102.9¢ · fees 3.0¢ → net −0.1¢
—LP-0.1¢
Watch
PM
Will the US government shut down before Nov 30?
edge below 1.5¢ threshold
34¢0.33-1.0¢
Stay out
KX
October CPI year-over-year above 3.0%?
book too thin for 100 contracts
41¢0.44+3.0¢
Stay out
PM
Will the EU AI Act delegated acts be published by Q1 2027?
fees exceed edge
55¢0.52-3.0¢
Stay out